Evening Blend

Portrait of the Day

• Brexit negotiations ‘have been difficult’ and ‘no solution has been identified’ to the Irish backstop, a European Commission spokesman said...

•  ... as Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told reporters that the UK had put forward some ‘very reasonable proposals’.

• MPs have been promised a vote on any changes to workers’ rights after Brexit as Theresa May seeks Labour support to pass her deal on leaving the EU.

• The Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff Gavin Barwell met with cabinet ministers to  out the government narrative ahead of next week’s Brexit votes.

• Home Secretary Sajid Javid called for knife crime to be treated ‘like a disease’ after meeting police chiefs from seven forces most affected by violent crime..

• Two Tory councillors have quit after being accused of sharing Islamophobic posts on social media.

The Analysis

Trump towers over Westminster

British politics has been seized up for years, but today Westminster really did grind to a standstill, with roads closed all over the place for the state visit of Donald Trump. The US President landed at Stansted airport this morning having already sparked his first row of the trip, tweeting while mid-air that Sadiq Khan was a 'stone-cold loser'. Khan had argued that Britain shouldn't be rolling out the red carpet for the visit so there was, unusually, some context to this. But while Trump is happy to lock horns with the Mayor of London, he's being especially courteous to Theresa May, as we discuss on our latest Coffee House Shots podcast. The pair won't be holding private talks, something Downing Street denies was ever on the agenda, but there will be a meeting between a delegation in Number 10 including ministers and officials.

Given May will finally resign on Friday, it's not as if there's much for the two to discuss in private talks. The focus is really on who else Trump might meet, and how all the Tory leadership candidates plan to respond to him. There's a chance that he might just happen to bump into Boris Johnson, for instance. One of the live issues for this state visit is whether or not the UK bows to US pressure on Huawei. Trump has urged May to be 'very careful' in allowing the Chinese tech firm to build parts of the UK's 5G network, and a number of leadership contenders have also voiced concerns about the security issues of the decision. Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid have spoken out most forcefully, while Johnson has been a little more coy.

The former Foreign Secretary has had other things on his mind today, officially launching his campaign with a slick video. As Katy blogs, the idea behind this video was to show Johnson has plenty of grassroots support in the country, in contrast to some of the other candidates who didn't even leave Westminster to film their videos. Keep an eye on who is standing and who is winning the most support here.

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Quote of the day

‘Sadiq Khan, who by all accounts has done a terrible job as Mayor of London, has been foolishly “nasty” to the visiting President of the United States, by far the most important ally of the United Kingdom. He is a stone cold loser who should focus on crime in London, not me......’

‍Donald Trump stooping to Sadiq Khan’s level shortly before arriving in the UK.

Tomorrow's agenda

• The 1922 Committee executive will reportedly consider changes to the Tory leadership contest rules to limit the number of candidates.

• Donald Trump is to spend part of the day with Theresa May, including a visit to the Churchill War Rooms.
  

Some vital statistics

What will be the final result of the Tory leadership run-off?

The chances, as implied by Ladbrokes’ odds:

• Winner: Boris Johnson, runner-up: Michael Gove – 17% chance.
  

• Winner: Boris Johnson, runner-up: Jeremy Hunt – 9% chance.
  

• Winner: Michael Gove, runner-up: Jeremy Hunt – 8% chance.
  

• Winner: Boris Johnson, runner-up: Dominic Raab – 7% chance.
  

• Winner: Michael Gove, runner-up: Boris Johnson – 6% chance.
  

• Winner: Boris Johnson, runner-up: Rory Stewart – 4% chance.